The Week Ahead: Highlights

US Preview

Labor Market Back in Focus

By Theresa Sheehan, Econoday Economist

The March 2 week includes several reports about the labor market that will factor into the next decision about monetary policy at the March 17-18 FOMC meeting and will color the update to the quarter forecasts in the summary of economic projections (SEP). The February employment report at 8:30 ET on Friday, March 6 is the last and most important indicator about the labor market that will be released before the start of the blackout period around FOMC meeting (starts midnight on Saturday, March 7 and ends at midnight on Thursday, March 19).

February payrolls are hard to estimate, in part because of winter weather conditions. The weather may be a factor in the next report due to a period of bitter cold for much of the country in late January and early February. The cold was unusually present in much of the southeastern parts of the country where normally some hints of spring would allow a pickup in outdoor work. There was also major strike activity by the New York State Nurses Association with about 42,000 members on strike for 41 days (January 12-February 21. This crosses the survey reference period and will affect the headcounts in the health care sector. The nurses will be subtracted from the February numbers but added back in in the March report. It might look particularly bad with job gains in the health care sector being one of the few industries consistently adding to payrolls. The February employment report has a strong tendency to come in below the market consensus, although it is frequently revised higher in March. Winter weather and a mid-month holiday can mean some initial underreporting.

Also important for the outlook for the upcoming FOMC meeting is the Fed's Beige Book is at 14:00 ET on Wednesday. The compilation of anecdotal evidence about economic conditions across the 12 districts will cover roughly the period from early January through mid-February. The Beige Book released on January 14 was consistent with modest growth and an economy that was shaking off the restraining effect of the chaotic rollout of higher tariffs early in 2025 amid signs that tariff-driven inflation was abating. However, the arrival of 2026 has brought other geopolitical uncertainties into play along with concerns about the rapid adoption of AI technologies.

At this writing, neither the Senate Banking Committee nor the House Financial Services Committee have announced a date for Fed Chair Jerome Powell's semiannual monetary policy testimony. This becomes more urgent as the preparatory work done by the Board of Governors - typically in late January for testimony in the second week of February -- for their monetary policy report gets outdated.

Also, the Senate Banking Committee has yet to schedule a confirmation hearing for Kevin Warsh to become the next Chair of the Fed. Oddly, the announcements of his nomination make no mention of a nomination as a governor of the Fed board, which is a prerequisite for becoming chair. The assumption is that Warsh will be nominated to the seat to which Stephen Miran was appointed and not reconfirmed. Miran's term ended officially on January 31, 2026, but he can remain on the board until another governor is nominated and confirmed. The current unexpired term runs for 14 years through January 31, 2040. Sen. Thomas Tillis of North Carolina, a key member of the Senate Banking Committee, has said he will prevent any Fed nomination from proceeding until the president's threat to prosecute Powell ends.

Europe Preview

SNB Decision Highlights European Week

By Marco Babic, Econoday Economist

Europe's week starts off Monday with the decision from the Swiss National Bank on its policy rate now at zero percent. The SNB moved rates into negative territory before, but so far has seemed reluctant to do so again.

The Swiss central bank will certainly consider economic conditions, which currently show a relatively stagnant economy with no inflation. At the same time, negative interest rates were a burden on both banks and clients when they have to actually pay for the privilege of holding cash. When negative rates were policy, a number of wealth managers and banks said that higher interest rates were actually in their best interests.

So, what is a central bank to do? The United States has once again thrown a spanner into the works after the Supreme Court determined that the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration are illegal. The question is whether the Swiss government and, for that matter, the European Union re-engages the US on tariffs. For, now the EU has put its trade agreement on hold pending more clarity. There is no reason to think the Swiss government won't do likewise.

Bearing all that in mind, the SNB will likely hold rates at zero, stand pat, and let events play out. Inflation is not an issue, save for volatility around energy prices. At the same time, the strength of the Swiss franc is keeping imported inflation at bay.

Preliminary inflation data is set for release for the Eurozone and also the major economies, and there is nothing to suggest that the results will trouble the ECB. It will be interesting to see of the guardians of the euro in Frankfurt will have discussed the tariff situation when they release the minutes on Thursday of their previous meeting.

The rest of the has final PMI readings for the main economies, which are not expected to stray to far, if at all, from preliminary numbers, while Italy final GDP on Wednesday will give more details about the breakdown of economic performance, with trade of particular interest.

Asia-Pacific Preview

Purchasing Managers Reports in Focus; China Data Returns

By Brian Jackson, Econoday Economist

PMI surveys will be the main focus of the Asia-Pacific data calendar, particularly the Chinese surveys. Many key Chinese indicators are not published separately for January and February because of distortions caused by the timing of lunar new year holidays, meaning there has been little information published in recent weeks about conditions there. Surveys for other Asian nations will also likely be impacted to some extent by lunar new year holidays.

Australia will publish monthly trade and household spending data and the quarterly GDP release, while South Korea will report monthly trade, industrial production, retail sales and inflation data. Taiwan inflation and industrial production data will be published late in the week ahead of the quarterly policy meeting in mid-March.

The Week Ahead: Econoday Consensus Forecasts

Monday

India PMI Manufacturing Final for February (Mon 1030 IST; Mon 0500 GMT; Mon 0000 EST)

Consensus Forecast, Level: 57.5

Consensus Range, Level: 57.5 to 57.5

The consensus sees no revision for the final from 57.5 in the flash, up from 55.4 in January final.

Germany Retail Sales for January (Mon 0800 CET; Mon 0700 GMT; Mon 0200 EST)

Consensus Forecast, M/M: -0.2%

Consensus Range, M/M: -0.5% to 0.5%

Sales are sluggish, expected to retreat 0.2 percent in January after rising by 0.1 percent in December on month.

Eurozone PMI Manufacturing Final for February (Mon 0900 CET; Mon 0800 GMT; Mon 0300 EST)

Consensus Forecast, Index: 50.8

Consensus Range, Index: 50.8 to 50.8

The consensus sees no revision in the final for February from the flash at 50.8 and up from 49.5 in January final.

Switzerland SNB Monetary Policy Assessment for March (Mon 0930 CET; Mon 0830 GMT; Mon 0330 EST)

Consensus Forecast, Change: 0 bp

Consensus Range, Change: 0 bp to 0 bp

Consensus Forecast, Level: 0.0%

Consensus Range, Level: 0.0% to 0.0%

The consensus sees no rate change.

France PMI Manufacturing Final for February (Mon 0950 CET; Mon 0850 GMT; Mon 0350 EST)

Consensus Forecast, Index: 49.9

Consensus Range, Index: 49.9 to 498.9

The consensus sees no revision in the final for February from the flash at 49.9 and versus 51.2 in January final.

Germany PMI Manufacturing Final for February (Mon 0955 CET; Mon 0755 GMT; Mon 0355 EST)

Consensus Forecast, Index: 50.7

Consensus Range, Index: 50.7 to 50.7

The consensus sees no revision in the final for February from the flash at 50.7 and up from 49.1 in January final.

UK PMI Manufacturing Final for February (Mon 0930 BST; Mon 0930 GMT; Mon 0430 EST)

Consensus Forecast, Index: 52.0

Consensus Range, Index: 52.0 to 52.0

The consensus sees no revision in the final for February from the flash at 52.0 and versus 51.8 in January final.

US PMI Manufacturing Final for February (Mon 0945 EST; Mon 1445 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, Index: 51.2

Consensus Range, Index: 51.2 to 51.2

The consensus sees no revision in the final for February from the flash at 51.2 and down from 52.4 in January final.

US ISM Manufacturing Index for February (Mon 1000 EST; Mon 1500 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, Index: 51.8

Consensus Range, Index: 50.5 to 53.0

Manufacturing seen barely expansionary at 51.8 in February versus 52.6 in January.

Tuesday

Japan Unemployment Rate for January (Tue 0830 JST; Mon 2330 GMT; Mon 1830 EST)

Consensus Forecast, Rate: 2.6%

Consensus Range, Rate: 2.5% to 2.6%

Japan's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged for a sixth consecutive month at 2.6 percent in January, as persistent labor shortages across a wide range of industries continue to support payrolls.

In December, employment rose for a 41st straight year-on-year increase, with the number of employed persons up 130,000 from a year earlier to 68.42 million. Many companies continue to seek qualified workers, particularly in hospitals, construction firms, hotels and restaurants. By contrast, manufacturers and the wholesale and retail sectors continued to reduce their workforces.

Meanwhile, the number of unemployed people increased for a fifth consecutive month in December. By reason for seeking employment compared with the same month a year earlier, the number of those who left jobs for employer- or business-related reasons rose by 10,000, while voluntary job leavers fell by 10,000. The number of new job seekers increased by 110,000.

US Motor Vehicle Sales for February (ANYTIME)

Consensus Forecast, Total Vehicle Sale - Annual Rate: 15.3 M

Consensus Range, Total Vehicle Sale - Annual Rate: 15.1 M to 15.8 M

The consensus sees sales up to an annual 15.3 million unit rate from 14.9 million in January.

Eurozone HICP Flash for February (TUE 1100 CET; TUE 1000 GMT; TUE 0500 EST)

Consensus Forecast, HICP - Y/Y: 1.7%

Consensus Range, HICP - Y/Y: 1.7% to 1.8%

Consensus Forecast, Narrow Core - Y/Y: 2.2%

Consensus Range, Narrow Core - Y/Y: 2.0% to 2.2%

The consensus sees HICP up 1.7percent on year and the narrow core up 2.2 percent, unchanged from the January final.

Italy CPI for February (Tue 1100 CET; Tue 1000 GMT; Tue 0500 EST)

Consensus Forecast, Y/Y: 1.1%

Consensus Range, Y/Y: 1.1% to 1.1%

CPI expected up 1.1 percent on year in the February preliminary report versus 1.0 percent in the January final.

Wednesday

Australia GDP for Fourth Quarter (Wed 1130 AET; Wed 0030 GMT; Tue 1930 EST)

Consensus Forecast, Q/Q: 0.8%

Consensus Range, Q/Q: 0.5% to 0.9%

Growth seen better at 0.8 percent in Q4 from Q3 versus 0.4 percent in Q3 as consumer spending and housing investment pick up steam.

China CFLP Composite PMI for February (Wed 0930 CST; Wed 0130 GMT; Tue 2030 EST)

Consensus Forecast, Manufacturing Index: 49.1

Consensus Range, Manufacturing Index: 49.0 to 49.9

Consensus Forecast, Non-Manufacturing Index: 49.7

Consensus Range, Non-Manufacturing Index: 49.5 to 50.0

Slow contraction continuing with manufacturing expected marginally weaker at 49.1 in February versus 49.3 in January and services better at 49.7 from 49.4 in January.

China PMI Composite for February (Wed 0945 CST; Wed 0145 GMT; Tue 2045 EST)

Consensus Forecast, Services Index: 52.3

Consensus Range, Services Index: 51.7 to 52.4

The consensus looks for services flat at 52.3 in February from January, suggesting modest expansion in services business, slightly better than the official CFLP report showing no growth.

Eurozone PMI Composite Final for March (Wed 0900 CET; Wed 0800 GMT; Wed 0300 EST)

Consensus Forecast, Composite Index: 51.9

Consensus Range, Composite Index: 51.9 to 51.9

Consensus Forecast, Services Index: 51.8

Consensus Range, Services Index: 51.8 to 51.8

The consensus sees no revision in the final from the flash at 51.9 for composite and 51.8 for services in the February final.

Germany PMI Composite Final for February (Wed 0955 CET; Wed 0855 GMT; Wed 0355 EST)

Consensus Forecast, Composite Index: 53.1

Consensus Range, Composite Index: 53.1 to 53.1

Consensus Forecast, Services Index: 53.4

Consensus Range, Services Index: 53.4 to 53.4

The consensus sees no revision in the final from the flash at 53.1 for composite and 53.4 for services in the February final.

UK PMI Composite Final for February (Wed 0930 BST; Wed 0930 GMT; Wed 0430 EST)

Consensus Forecast, Composite Index: 53.9

Consensus Range, Composite Index: 53.9 to 53.9

Consensus Forecast, Services Index: 53.9

Consensus Range, Services Index: 53.9 to 53.9

The consensus sees no revision in the final from the flash at 53.9 for composite and 53.9 for services in the February final.

Eurozone Unemployment Rate for February (Wed 1100 CEST; Wed 1000 GMT; Wed 0500 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, Rate: 6.2%

Consensus Range, Rate: 6.2% to 6.3%

No change expected in the jobless rate.

US ADP Employment Report for February (Wed 0815 EST; Wed 1315 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, Private Payrolls - M/M: 43K

Consensus Range, Private Payrolls - M/M: 19K to 55K

Private payrolls expected up a meager 43K in February after 22K in January.

US PMI Services Final for February (Wed 0945 EST; Wed 1445 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, Index: 52.3

Consensus Range, Index: 52.0 to 52.3

No revision expected in the final February report from the flash for PMI services at 52.3.

US ISM Services Index for February (Wed 1000 GMT; Wed 1500 EST)

Consensus Forecast, Services Index: 53.6

Consensus Range, Services Index: 52.0 to 54.2

Forecasters see growth stable with an index at 53.6 versus 53.8 in January.

Thursday

Australia International Trade in Goods for January (Thu 1130 AET; Thu 0030 GMT; Wed 1930 EST)

Consensus Forecast, Balance: A$4.1 B

Consensus Range, Balance: A$3.1 B to A$5.0 B

The consensus looks for a slight widening in the surplus to A$4.1 billion from $3.373 billion a month earlier.

Australia Household Spending for January (Thu 1130 AET; Thu 0030 GMT; Wed 1930 EST)

Consensus Forecast, M/M: 0.4%

Consensus Range, M/M: 0.0% to 0.8%

The consensus sees a return to moderate growth for spending at a 0.4 percent increase on the month after a decline of 0.4 percent in the previous month.

France Industrial Production for January (Thu 0845 CET; Thu 0745 GMT; Thu 0245 EST)

Consensus Forecast, M/M: 0.5%

Consensus Range, M/M: 0.4% to 1.0%

Sales seen rebounding by 0.5 percent in January after dropping 0.8 percent in December.

Eurozone Retail Sales for January (Thu 1100 CEST; Thu 1000 GMT; Thu 0500 EST)

Consensus Forecast, M/M: 0.2%

Consensus Range, M/M: -0.1% to 0.6%

Consensus Forecast, Y/Y: 1.7%

Consensus Range, Y/Y: 1.4% to 2.1%

Sales expected up 0.2 percent on the month and 1.7 percent on year.

US Jobless Claims for Week 02/28 (Thu 0830 GMT; Wed 1330 EST)

Consensus Forecast, Initial Claims - Level: 215K

Consensus Range, Initial Claims - Level: 210K to 220K

Claims seen at 215K, up from 212K last week.

US Productivity and Costs for Fourth Quarter Prelim. (Thu 0830 EST; Thu 1330 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, Nonfarm Productivity - Annual Rate: 1.9%

Consensus Range, Nonfarm Productivity - Annual Rate: 1.5% to 4.0%

Consensus Forecast, Unit Labor Costs - Annual Rate: 2.1%

Consensus Range, Unit Labor Costs - Annual Rate: -0.7% to 2.6%

The delayed first reading for Q4 expected to show much slower productivity growth at 1.9 percent versus 4.9 percent in Q3 and ULC up 2.1 percent versus a decrease of 1.9 percent in Q3.

US Imports and Export Prices for January (Thu 0830 EST; Thu 1330 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, Import Prices - M/M: 0.1%

Consensus Range, Import Prices - M/M: -0.1% to 0.2%

Consensus Forecast, Export Prices - M/M: 0.2%

Consensus Range, Export Prices - M/M: 0.0% to 0.4%

Import prices seen up 0.1 percent and export prices up 0.2 percent in January on the month.

Friday

South Korea CPI for February (Fri 0800 KST; Thu 2300 GMT; Thu 1800 EST)

Consensus Forecast, CPI - M/M: 0.4%

Consensus Range, CPI - M/M: 0.2% to 0.5%

Consensus Forecast, CPI - Y/Y: 2.1%

Consensus Range, CPI - Y/Y: 1.9% to 2.2%

CPI expected up 0.4 percent on the month and 2.1 percent on year in February.

Germany Manufacturing Orders for January (Fri 0800 CET; Fri 0700 GMT; Fri 0200 EST)

Consensus Forecast, M/M: -5.0%

Consensus Range, M/M: -10.0% to -3.0%

Consensus Forecast, Y/Y: 13.1%

Consensus Range, Y/Y: 12.0% to 13.2%

Sales volatility continues with sales seen down 5.0 percent on the month after a 7.8 percent jump in the previous month.

Eurozone GDP Flash for Fourth Quarter (Fri 1100 CET; Fri 1000 GMT; Fri 0500 EST)

Consensus Forecast, Q/Q: 0.3%

Consensus Range, Q/Q: 0.3% to 0.3%

Consensus Forecast, Y/Y: 1.3%

Consensus Range, Y/Y: 1.3% to 1.3%

No revision from the last report expected with GDP up 0.3 percent on quarter and 1.3 percent on year.

US Employment Situation for February (Fri 0830 EST; Fri 1330 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, Nonfarm Payrolls - M/M: 60K

Consensus Range, Nonfarm Payrolls - M/M: 35K to 125K

Consensus Forecast, Unemployment Rate: 4.4%

Consensus Range, Unemployment Rate: 4.3% to 4.4%

Consensus Forecast, Private Payrolls - M/M: 65K

Consensus Range, Private Payrolls - M/M: 49K to 80K

Consensus Forecast, Average Hourly Earnings - M/M: 0.3%

Consensus Range, Average Hourly Earnings - M/M: 0.3% to 0.3%

Consensus Forecast, Average Hourly Earnings - Y/Y: 3.7%

Consensus Range, Average Hourly Earnings - Y/Y: 3.6% to 3.8%

Consensus Forecast, Average Workweek Hours: 34.3

Consensus Range, Average Workweek: 34.2 to 34.3

Jobs expected up 60K, a moderate showing these days, with the jobless rate up a tick at 4.4 percent versus 4.3 percent in January.

US Retail Sales for January (Fri 0830 EST; Fri 1330 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, Retail Sales - M/M: -0.4%

Consensus Range, Retail Sales - M/M: -0.8% to 0.4%

Consensus Forecast, Ex-Vehicles - M/M: 0.1%

Consensus Range, Ex-Vehicles - M/M: -0.4% to 0.6%

Sales expected basically flat, up 0.1 percent, ex-autos. Not impressive, especially as these are nominal numbers.

US Business Inventories for December (Fri 1000 EST; Fri 1500 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, M/M: 0.0%

Consensus Range, M/M: -0.1% to 0.1%

Inventories seen flat in December after edging up 0.1 percent in November.

US Consumer Credit for January (Fri 1500 EST; Fri 2000 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, M/M: $ 11.1 B

Consensus Range, M/M: $8.0 B to $12.0 B

A trend like rise of $11.1 billion in the call after an unusually large $24 billion increase in the previous month.