Global Economics will be taking the next week off. Next article will be dated January 2, 2026

The Week Ahead: Highlights

US Preview

Pre-Holiday US Data Release Crunch Coming Dec. 23

By Theresa Sheehan, Econoday Economist

The data release schedule in the December 22 week is curtailed by the presence of the Christmas holidays. In the US, Christmas Eve on Wednesday is not an official holiday, nor is Boxing Day on Friday. Christmas is a holiday on Thursday. As a result, many people will extend their time off by taking vacation on Wednesday and Friday. Some will further extend that into the next week through the New Year observance. There is an early market close for stocks and bonds on December 24 and a full market close on December 25. On December 31, there is an early bond market close, but not for stock markets. January 1 is a full market close for both stocks and bonds. Tuesday morning sees a rush to get a number of reports out before the holiday period. Most of these have little market moving potential as they are part of the catch up in data reporting after the government shutdown.

Among the crush of Tuesday morning releases is the GDP estimate for the July-September quarter. The BEA is calling it an "initial" estimate since it combines the normal "advance" and "second estimates". Given it covers the third quarter 2025, the data in the report is relatively old with the fourth quarter already approaching its end. Nonetheless, this will be the first official measure of growth in the third quarter and will help frame economic activity going into the fourth quarter. The government shutdown occurred mostly in October and is expected to cut perhaps two-tenths from growth in the October-December period, according to Fed Chair Jerome Powell. He anticipated that will be recovered in the first quarter 2026.

The GDP Nowcasts from three Fed district banks point to growth centering around 2.5 percent. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow - the most reliable of the three - forecasts growth of around 3.5 percent. It seems probable that consumer spending continues to buoy expansion despite the impacts of tariffs or because of them as consumers front-load purchases in anticipation of higher prices. Whether this momentum carries into the fourth quarter remains to be seen.

Asia-Pacific Preview

Singapore, Taiwan Industrial Production Reports in Focus

By Brian Jackson, Econoday Economist

The Asia-Pacific data calendar is very light. Singapore will report industrial production and inflation data, Hong Kong will report inflation data, and Taiwan will report industrial production data.

The Week Ahead: Econoday Consensus Forecasts

Monday

United Kingdom GDP for Third Quarter (Mon 0700 GMT; Mon 0200 EST)

Consensus Forecast, Q/Q: 0.1%

Consensus Range, Q/Q: 0.1% to 0.1%

Consensus Forecast, Y/Y: 1.3%

Consensus Range, Y/Y: 1.3% to 1.3%

In the final revision for Q3 GDP, forecasters see no revision from the previously reported 0.1 percent Q/Q and 1.3 percent Y/Y.

Tuesday

Singapore CPI for November (Tue 1300 CST; Tue 0500 GMT; Tue 0000 EST)

Consensus Forecast, Y/Y: 1.2%

Consensus Range, Y/Y: 1.1% to 1.4%

The consensus sees CPI up 1.3 percent on year in November compared with 1.2 percent in October.

Canada Monthly GDP for October (Tue 0830 EST; Tue 1330 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, M/M: -0.3%

Consensus Range, M/M: -0.4% to 0.0%

The consensus agrees with the Stats Canada estimate calling for a decrease of 0.3 percent in October after an increase of 0.2 percent in September.

US Durable Goods Orders for October (Tue 0830 EST; Tue 1330 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, New Order - M/M: -1.5%

Consensus Range, New Order - M/M: -4.5% to 0.6%

Consensus Forecast, Ex-Transportation - M/M: 0.1%

Consensus Range, Ex-Transportation - M/M: -1.0% to 0.4%

Another month of plunging aircraft orders expected to depress the headline number but leave ex-transportation nearly flat at plus 0.1 percent.

US GDP for Third Quarter (Wed 0830 EST; Wed 1330 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, Q/Q - Annual Rate: 3.2%

Consensus Range, Q/Q - Annual Rate: 2.5% to 3.8%

Consensus Forecast, Personal Consumption Expenditures - Annual Rate: 2.7%

Consensus Range, Personal Consumption Expenditures - Annual Rate: 2.7% to 3.1%

Growth expected at a robust 3.2 percent in Q3 with a lift from net exports. PCE seen at a decent 2.7 percent.

US Industrial Production for November (Tue 0915 EST; Tue 1415 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, Industrial Production - M/M: 0.1%

Consensus Range, Industrial Production - M/M: -0.4% to 0.3%

Consensus Forecast, Capacity Utilization Rate: 75.9%

Consensus Range, Capacity Utilization Rate: 75.7% to 76.1%

Output expected barely changed and capacity utilization flat too in line with anemic ISM purchasing managers manufacturing indexes.

US Consumer Confidence for December (Tue 1000 EST; Tue 1500 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, Index: 91.9

Consensus Range, Index: 89.0 to 94.5

Confidence indicator expected better but still depressed at 91.9 for December after falling 6.8 points to 88.7 in November from 95.5 in October. Consumers remain worried by pocketbook issues.

Wednesday

US Jobless Claims Week 12/20 (Wed 0830 GMT; Wed 1330 EST)

Consensus Forecast, Initial Claims - Level: 225K

Consensus Range, Initial Claims - Level: 217K to 235K

Claims expected at 225K, not much changed from 224K last week, which is down 13 from the week before that. It's a noisy indicator week to week but the trend has been remarkably stable given all the sturm and drang over the job market.

Thursday

Japan Tokyo CPI for December (Thu 0830 JST; Wed 2330 GMT; Wed 1830 EST)

Consensus Forecast, CPI - Y/Y: 2.4%

Consensus Range, CPI - Y/Y: 2.1% to 2.5%

Consensus Forecast, Ex-Fresh Food - Y/Y: 2.5%

Consensus Range, Ex-Fresh Food - Y/Y: 2.5% to 2.7%

Consensus Forecast, Ex-Fresh Food & Energy - Y/Y: 2.9%

Consensus Range, Ex-Fresh Food & Energy - Y/Y: 2.7% to 2.9%

The Tokyo consumer price index, a leading indicator of nationwide inflation trends, is expected to decline on the year for the first time in four months in December, reflecting lower prices at supermarkets through the earlier part of the month.

The core measure (excluding fresh food) is forecast to post a rise of 2.5 percent on the year in December, slowing from 2.8 percent in November. The total CPI is seen gaining 2.4%, down from a 2.7 percent rise in the previous month, while the core-core index (excluding fresh food and energy) is expected to edge up to 2.9 percent from 2.8 percent in November. All three readings have remained below 3 percent since June after easing from earlier peaks.

Japan Unemployment Rate for November (Thu 0830 JST; Wed 2330 GMT; Wed 1830 EST)

Consensus Forecast, Rate: 2.6%

Consensus Range, Rate: 2.5% to 2.6%

Broad-based labor shortages are expected to push Japanese payrolls higher for a 40th consecutive year-on-year increase in November, while the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate is seen edging lower. This aligns with the Bank of Japan's Tankan corporate sentiment survey for the December quarter, which pointed to strong labor tightness across sectors, with shortages particularly acute among smaller firms.

The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate is expected to be stable at 2.6 percent in November from a month earlier. In October, employment rose by 520,000 on the year to 68.65 million, led by gains in the medical and welfare industries, while declines were recorded in farming, manufacturing, and the wholesale and retail sectors.

The number of unemployed increased by 130,000, bringing the total to 1.83 million in October. By reason for job seeking compared with a year earlier, layoffs due to employer circumstances increased by 40,000, voluntary departures rose by 50,000, and new job seekers increased by 40,000 during the month.

Japan Industrial Production for November (Thu 0850 JST; Wed 2350 GMT; Wed 1850 EST)

Consensus Forecast, M/M: -1.3%

Consensus Range, M/M: -2.5% to 0.5%

Consensus Forecast, Y/Y: -1.0%

Consensus Range, Y/Y: -2.0% to 1.0%

Japan's industrial output is expected to return to a downward path in November, falling 1.3 percent from the previous month after rising unexpectedly in October, driven by a recovery in auto production as well as gains in industries such as electrical machinery and information and communications equipment.

Output in November is seen falling as cuts are anticipated in sectors including transport equipment, information and communications machinery, and chemicals. Persisting U.S. tariff policies are also seen weighing on production in the auto and metals sectors. The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry has projected that output will slip 2.6 percent in November before declining a further 2.0 percent in December. The ministry maintained its long-held assessment that industrial output is "taking one step forward and one step back."

On the year, November output is expected to dip 1.0 percent after rising 1.6 percent (revised from up 1.5 percent) in the prior month.

Japan Retail Sales for November (Thu 0850 JST; Wed 2350 GMT; Wed 1850 EST)

Consensus Forecast, M/M: 0.5%

Consensus Range, M/M: 0.2% to 0.5%

Consensus Forecast, Y/Y: 0.7%

Consensus Range, Y/Y: -0.5% to 0.9%

Japanese retail sales are seen rising 0.7 percent on the year in November, marking a third consecutive month of gains after increasing 1.7 percent the previous month, supported by firm demand for drugs and cosmetics and a rebound in auto sales.

The uptrend in retail sales is expected to continue, though but growth is expected to be slower as signs of weaker sales at major department stores, softer motor vehicle sales, and a drop in new passenger car registrations weigh on overall performance.

On the month, retail sales are projected to rise 0.5 percent rise on a seasonally adjusted basis, following a 1.6 percent gain in October and flat growth in September.