The Week Ahead: Highlights

US Preview

With Government Reopening, Data Agencies to Set New Release Schedules

By Theresa Sheehan, Econoday Economist

The US statistical agencies will be ramping up in the November 17 week now that the government shutdown of October 1-November 12 is over. The agencies will have to take a few days to figure out their new schedules and how to get back on track. New release calendars for the next month or two should be available early in the week. Agencies will need to ensure that data quality is up to normal standards and not rush or risk yet more skepticism about the quality of the numbers.

Until the Census Bureau, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and other statistical agencies announce their schedules, it is hard to say what is likely to be the standout report. There's a possibility that September employment report could appear as early as in the coming week given that the numbers were probably nearly ready for publication back on October 1. Weekly data on initial jobless claims could be prepared relatively quickly since the state reports have not ceased during the federal government closure. However, most other reports will take a bit more time to catch up.

The minutes of the October 28-29 FOMC meeting will be released on Wednesday at 14:00 ET. These will be important mainly in trying to assess the divergence in opinions among FOMC participants in the best way to balance the dual mandate for price stability and maximum employment. Some will be more concerned that the Fed's 2 percent inflation objective is a bit more distant and remains elevated. Some will see weakness in the labor market as more of a worry.

The FOMC's next meeting is December 9-10. As Fed Chair Jerome Powell has said lately, there is no risk-free path for policymakers. He's also mentioned the "strong opinions" among FOMC participants that will lead to another debate that could well mean more dissents in the meeting vote. A rate hike is pretty much out of the question, but whether it will be another rate cut or a pause is not yet clear. The FOMC should have more and more current data to work with by the time of the meeting.

Asia-Pacific Preview

Singapore Trade Data, RBA Meeting Minutes Headline Quiet Week

By Brian Jackson, Econoday Economist

Singapore trade data will be watched to see if the rebound in export growth in September was sustained in October, while the minutes of last week's Reserve Bank of Australia meeting may provide insights into officials' assessment of the outlook. Australian quarterly wage data will also be published next week after monthly labour market data showed weakness over the relevant period but some improvement in October.

The flash estimate for the India PMI survey will provide the first indication of conditions in November. Elsewhere in the region, New Zealand will report monthly trade data and quarterly producer price data, while Hong Kong will publish inflation data. The People's Bank of China's monthly review of the loan prime rate will also take place but official commentary accompanying activity data this week provided no indication that changes to policy settings are being considered.

The Week Ahead: Econoday Consensus Forecasts

Monday

Japan GDP for Third Quarter (Mon 0850 JST; Sun 2350 GMT; Sun 1850 EST)

Consensus Forecast, Q/Q: -0.7%

Consensus Range, Q/Q: -1.0% to -0.3%

Consensus Forecast, Y/Y: 0.4%

Consensus Range, Y/Y: 0.1% to 0.8%

Japan's real gross domestic product is forecast to have fallen 0.7% from the previous quarter, or an annualized 2.7%, in the July-September period, marking the first contraction in six quarters.

The preliminary Q3 GDP data, due from the Cabinet Office at 0850 JST on Monday, Nov. 17 (2350 GMT / 1950 EDT, Sunday, Nov. 16), are expected to show a decline driven by a pullback in exports, a sharp drop in housing investment and a drawdown in inventories.
However, the slowdown is seen as modest and does not suggest a broad-based deterioration in Japan's economic fundamentals. Private consumption and business investment are expected to remain resilient, indicating that the underlying strength of the economy is largely intact

Italy CPI for October (Mon 1100 CET; Mon 1000 GMT; Mon 0500 EST)

Consensus Forecast, M/M: -0.3%

Consensus Range, M/M: -0.3% to -0.3%

Consensus Forecast, Y/Y: 1.2%

Consensus Range, Y/Y: 1.2% to 1.2%

Forecasters expect no revision from the flash with a decrease of 0.3 percent on the month and an increase of 1.2 percent on year in October.

Canada Housing Starts for October (Mon 0815 EST; Mon 1315 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, Annual Rate: 265K

Consensus Range, Annual Rate: 260K to 275K

Starts expected to ease to a 265K rate in October from 279K in September.

Canada CPI for October (Mon 0830 EST; Mon 1330 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, CPI - M/M: 0.2%

Consensus Range, CPI - M/M: 0.1% to 0.2%

Consensus Forecast, CPI - Y/Y: 2.1%

Consensus Range, CPI - Y/Y: 2.0% to 2.4%

After last month's upside surprise at 2.4 percent, forecasters see a more moderate 2.1 percent on year for October, mostly due to lower energy prices.

US Empire State Manufacturing Index for November (Mon 0830 EST; Mon 1330 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, Index: 5.8

Consensus Range, Index: 3.0 to 10.0

The consensus sees the index falling back a bit to 5.8 in November after rising to 10.7 in October from minus 8.7 in September.

Tuesday

United States Import and Export Prices for October (Tue 0830 EST; Tue 1230 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, Import Prices - M/M: -0.1%

Consensus Range, Import Prices - M/M: -0.2% to 0.3%

Import prices expected off 0.1 percent on month.

United States Industrial Production for October (Tue 0915 EST; Tue 1315 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, Industrial Production - M/M: -0.1%

Consensus Range, Industrial Production - M/M: -0.1% to 0.1%

Consensus Forecast, Capacity Utilization Rate: 77.3%

Consensus Range, Capacity Utilization Rate: 77.2% to 77.5%

The consensus sees industrial output down 0.1 percent with capacity utilization at 77.3 percent. Forecasters say the contraction evident in the ISM manufacturing index means output is falling slowly.

United States Housing Market Index for November (Tue 1000 EST; Tue 1400 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, Index: 37.0

Consensus Range, Index: 34.0 to 40.0

The consensus looks for the index to hold steady at 37 in November from 37 in October and up from a recent low of 32 in September.

Wednesday

Japan Merchandise Trade for October (Wed 0850 JST; Tue 2350 GMT; Tue 1850 EST)

Consensus Forecast, Balance: ¥-271.40 B

Consensus Range, Balance: ¥-460.00 B to ¥-244.0 B

Consensus Forecast, Imports - Y/Y: -0.9%

Consensus Range, Imports - Y/Y: -2.1% to 0.2%

Consensus Forecast, Exports - Y/Y: 0.8%

Consensus Range, Exports - Y/Y: 0.2% to 2.3%

Japan's export values are forecast to post a second straight year-on-year increase in October, rising 0.8% following a 4.2% gain in September, which was the first increase in five months.

The uptrend in exports is expected to continue in October, supported by the weaker yen, which is helping to sustain demand from the European Union and Asia. Exports to the EU and Asia rose for the second straight month in September, while exports to China rose for the first time in seven months, rising 5.8%.

With both exports and imports likely remaining sluggish in late October, Japan's trade balance is expected to show a fourth consecutive monthly deficit, estimated at ¥271.4 billion, following a revised ¥237.36 billion shortfall in September. That compares with a ¥472.33 billion deficit in October 2024.

Japan Machinery Orders for September (Wed 0850 JST; Tue 2350 GMT; Tue 1850 EST)

Consensus Forecast, M/M: 3.1%

Consensus Range, M/M: -1.0% to 5.0 %

Consensus Forecast, Y/Y: 7.6%

Consensus Range, Y/Y: 0.0% to 8.7%

Japan's core machinery orders, a key leading indicator of business investment in

equipment and software, are expected to rise 3.1% in September from the previous

month, rebounding for the first time in three months after a 0.9% decline in August.

From a year earlier, core orders, excluding those from electric utilities and for ships, are

forecast to increase 7.6%, following a 1.6% gain in August, marking a 12th consecutive

month of year-on-year growth.

Australia Wage Price Index for Third Quarter (Wed 1130 AET; Wed 0030 GMT; Tue 1930 EST)

Consensus Forecast, Q/Q: 0.8%

Consensus Range, Q/Q: 0.6% to 0.9%

Consensus Forecast, Y/Y: 3.4%

Consensus Range, Y/Y: 3.2% to 3.4%

Wages seen up 0.8 percent on quarter and 3.4 percent on year in Q3, the same as in Q2.

United Kingdom CPI for October (Wed 0700 GMT; Wed 0200 EST)

Consensus Forecast, M/M: 0.4%

Consensus Range, M/M: 0.3% to 0.5%

Consensus Forecast, Y/Y: 3.6%

Consensus Range, Y/Y: 3.5% to 3.7%

UK annual inflation seen better but still problematic at 3.6 percent in October after an even more unpleasant 3.8 percent in September. Month on month, the consensus looks for an increase of 0.4 percent after no change in September.

UK PPI for October (Wed 0700 GMT; Wed 0200 EST)

Consensus Forecast, Output - Y/Y: 3.5%

Consensus Range, Output - Y/Y: 3.4% to 3.6%

Output PPI expected up 3.5 percent on year versus 3.4 percent in September.

Eurozone HICP for October (Wed 1100 CEST; Wed 1000 GMT; Wed 0500 EST)

Consensus Forecast, HICP - Y/Y: 2.1%

Consensus Range, HICP - Y/Y: 2.1% to 2.1%

Consensus Forecast, Narrow Core - Y/Y: 2.4%

Consensus Range, Narrow Core - Y/Y: 2.4% to 2.4%

Forecasters anticipate no revision from the flash with HICP up 2.1 percent on year and HICP narrow core up 2.5 percent on year.

US Housing Starts and Permits for October (Wed 0830 EST; Tue 1330 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, Starts - Annual Rate: 1.330 M

Consensus Range, Starts - Annual Rate: 1.300 M to 1.400

Consensus Forecast, Permits - Annual Rate: 1.340 M

Consensus Range, Permits - Annual Rate: 1.307M to 1.369

The call for October housing starts is a 1.330 million unit rate. Permits are seen at a 1.340 million unit rate.

China Loan Prime Rate for November (Wed 0915 CST; Wed 0115 GMT; Wed 2015 EST)

Consensus Forecast, 1-Year Rate - Change: 0 bp

Consensus Range, 1-Year Rate - Change: 0 bp to 0 bp

Consensus Forecast, 1-Year Rate - Level: 3.0%

Consensus Range, 1-Year Rate - Level: 3.0% to 3.0%

Consensus Forecast, 5-Year Rate - Change: 0 bp

Consensus Range, 5-Year Rate - Change: 0 bp to 0 bp

Consensus Forecast, 5-Year Rate - Level: 3.5%

Consensus Range, 5-Year Rate - Level: 3.5% to 3.5%

With no signal of a change from the PBOC, the consensus looks for no change this time on both 1-year and 5-year LPR.

Thursday

Germany PPI for October (Thu 0800 CET; Thu 0700 GMT; Thu 0200 EST)

Consensus Forecast, M/M: 0.2%

Consensus Range, M/M: 0.0% to 0.3%

Consensus Forecast, Y/Y: -1.7%

Consensus Range, Y/Y: -1.8% to -1.6%

Wholesale prices are seen up 0.2 percent on the month and down 1.7 percent on year in October after slipping by 0.1 percent on the month and declining the same 1.7 percent on year in September.

US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for November (Thu 0830 EST; Thu 1330 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, Index: 0.0

Consensus Range, Index: -8.0 to 8.0

The consensus sees the manufacturing index showing no change at 0.0 in October versus minus 12.8 in September.

US Existing Home Sales for October (Thu 1000 EST; Thu 1500 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, Annual Rate: 4.09 M

Consensus Range, Annual Rate: 4.02 M to 4.20 M

Sales expected pretty flat at 4.09 million rate in October versus 4.06 million in September.

Eurozone EC Consumer Confidence Flash for November (Thu 1600 NZDT; Thu 1000 GMT; Thu 1645 EST)

Consensus Forecast, Index: -14.5

Consensus Range, Index: -14.8 to -14.0

Confidence going nowhere at minus 14.5 in November from minus 14.2 in October.

United States Leading Indicators for October (Thu 1000 EST; Thu 1500 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, M/M: -0.3%

Consensus Range, M/M: -0.3% to 0.0%

Another contractionary reading expected at minus 0.3 percent.

Friday

Japan CPI for October (Fri 0830 JST; Thu 2330 GMT; Thu 1830 EST)

Consensus Forecast, CPI - Y/Y: 3.0%

Consensus Range, CPI - Y/Y: 2.8% to 3.0%

Consensus Forecast, Ex-Fresh Food - Y/Y: 3.0%

Consensus Range, Ex-Fresh Food - Y/Y: 2.8% to 3.0%

Consensus Forecast, Ex-Fresh Food & Energy - Y/Y: 3.1%

Consensus Range, Ex-Fresh Food & Energy - Y/Y: 2.9% to 3.2%

Consumer inflation in Japan is expected to post modest gains in October, with all three key measures seen climbing back above 3.0% for the first time in three months, led by a rebound in water charges following the end of Tokyo's water bill reduction program. Electricity and city gas prices also rose, while the introduction of a free childcare program and continued subsidies on electricity and gas prices weighed on overall inflation.

The core reading (excluding fresh food) is forecast to rise 3.0% year-on-year in October, up slightly from 2.9% in September, after its annual rate had slowed to 2.7% in August from 3.1% in July. Its recent peak of 3.7% in May reflected the impact of summertime utility subsidies.

The total CPI is similarly expected to edge up to 3.0% in October from 2.9% a month earlier, while the underlying inflation measure, the core-core CPI (excluding fresh food and energy), is projected to increase to 3.1% from 3.0% in September.

United Kingdom Retail Sales for October (Fri 0700 BST; Fri 0700 GMT; Fri 0200 EST)

Consensus Forecast, M/M: -0.1%

Consensus Range, M/M: -0.2% to 0.2%

Consensus Forecast, Y/Y: 1.8%

Consensus Range, Y/Y: 1.6% to 2.2%

Sales expected down 0.1 percent on the month and up 1.8 percent on year in October after rising 0.5 percent and 1.5 percent in September.

France Business Climate Indicator for November (Thu 0845 CET; Thu 0745 GMT; Thu 0245 EST)

Consensus Forecast, Index: 97

Consensus Range, Index: 97 to 98

The index is expected flat at 97 in November from 97 in October.

France PMI Composite Flash for November (Mon 0915 CET; Mon 0815 GMT; Mon 0315 EST)

Consensus Forecast, Manufacturing Index: 49.0

Consensus Range, Manufacturing Index: 48.8 to 49.6

Consensus Forecast, Services Index: 48.5

Consensus Range, Services Index: 48.0 to 49.4

The manufacturing index is expected at 49.0 in the November flash versus 48.9 in the October final. Services seen at 48.5 versus 48.0.

Germany PMI Composite Flash for November (Mon 0930 CET; Mon 0830 GMT; Mon 0330 EST)

Consensus Forecast, Composite Index: 53.4

Consensus Range, Composite Index: 53.1 to 53.5

Consensus Forecast, Manufacturing Index: 49.8

Consensus Range, Manufacturing Index: 49.3 to 50.4

Consensus Forecast, Services Index: 53.9

Consensus Range, Services Index: 53.0 to 55.0

The composite flash seen at 53.4 in the November flash versus 53.9 in October final. Manufacturing is seen at 49.8 versus 49.6 and services at 53.9 versus 54.6.

Eurozone PMI Composite Flash for November (Mon 1000 CET; Mon 0900 GMT; Mon 0400 EST)

Consensus Forecast, Composite Index: 52.5

Consensus Range, Composite Index: 52.2 to 52.7

Consensus Forecast, Manufacturing Index: 50.4

Consensus Range, Manufacturing Index: 49.9 to 50.9

Consensus Forecast, Services Index: 52.9

Consensus Range, Services Index: 52.3 to 53.2

The composite index is expected at 52.5 in the November flash versus 52.5 in October final. Manufacturing is seen at 50.4 versus 50.0 and services at 52.9 versus 53.0.

UK PMI Composite Flash for November (Mon 0930 GMT; Mon 0430 EST)

Consensus Forecast, Composite Index: 51.8

Consensus Range, Composite Index: 51.8 to 52.6

Consensus Forecast, Manufacturing Index: 49.5

Consensus Range, Manufacturing Index: 49.3 to 50.6

Consensus Forecast, Services Index: 52.0

Consensus Range, Services Index: 51.5 to 52.5

The composite index is expected at 51.8 in the November flash versus 52.2 in October final. Manufacturing is seen at 49.5 versus 49.7 and services at 52.0 versus 52.3.

Canada Retail Sales for September (Fri 0830 EST; Fri 1330 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, M/M: -0.7%

Consensus Range, M/M: -0.7% to -0.7%

Sales seen down 0.7 percent on the month in September, in line with the Stats Canada preliminary estimate, after rising 1.0 percent in August.

US PMI Flash for November (Fri 0945 EST; Fri 1445 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, Manufacturing Index: 52.3

Consensus Range, Manufacturing Index: 52.0 to 52.8

Consensus Forecast, Services Index: 54.8

Consensus Range, Services Index: 54.4 to 55.1

Manufacturing is seen at 52.3 in the November flash versus 52.5 in the October final and services expected unchanged at 54.8.

US Consumer Sentiment for November (Fri 1000 EST; Fri 1500 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, Index: 50.5

Consensus Range, Index: 50.1 to 51.7

The consensus looks for 50.5 in the November final versus the preliminary at 50.3, down from an already bleak 53.6 in October. Consumers continue to fret about losing their jobs and rising prices.