The Week Ahead: Econoday Consensus Forecasts

Monday

Germany Industrial Production for May (Mon 0800 CEST; Mon 0600 GMT; Mon 0200 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, M/M: -0.5%

Consensus Range, M/M: -1.5% to 2.0%

Consensus Forecast, Y/Y: -0.8%

Consensus Range, Y/Y: -1.5% to 0.7%

Output is expected to fall again by 0.5 percent in May after dropping by 1.4 percent in April. On year, output is seen down 0.8 percent after a 2.0 percent drop in April.

Eurozone Retail Sales for May (Mon 1100 CEST; Mon 0900 GMT; Mon 0500 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, M/M: -0.7%

Consensus Range, M/M: -1.0% to 0.2%

Consensus Forecast, Y/Y: 1.6%

Consensus Range, Y/Y: 1.4% to 2.1%

Sales are expected down 0.7 percent on the month and up 1.6 percent on year in May after rising 0.1 percent on the month and 2.3 percent on year in April.

Tuesday

Australia RBA Announcement (Tue 1430 AEST; Tue 0430 GMT; Tue 0030 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, Change: -25 bp

Consensus Range, Change: -25 bp to -25 bp

Consensus Forecast, Level: 3.60%

Consensus Range, Level: 3.60% to 3.60%

Forecasters uniformly expect another 25 basis point rate cut to 3.60 percent after the RBA cut by the same amount last time. The ongoing action reflects much weaker than expected consumer spending in the face of high inflation and high interest rates.

Germany Merchandise Trade for May (Tue 0800 CEST; Tue 0600 GMT; Tue 0200 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, Balance: E17.0 B

Consensus Range, Balance: E16.8 B to E18.0 B

The surplus is seen way up at E17.0 billion in May versus E14.6 million in April.

United States NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for June (Tue 0600 EDT; Tue 1000 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, Index: 98.7

Consensus Range, Index: 98.0 to 99.0

The index is expected nearly flat at 98.7 in June from 98.8 in May in June. The index was up 3.0 points to 98.8 in May as sentiment recovered from the tariff shock in April.

United States Consumer Credit for May (Tue 0600 EDT; Tue 1000 GMT)

Consensus Forecast: $11.5 B

Consensus Range: -$5.1 B to $13.0 B

Credit expected up a routine $11.5 billion in May after rising $17.9 billion in April.

Wednesday

China CPI for June (Wed 0930 CST; Wed 0130 GMT; Tue 2130 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, Y/Y: -0.1%

Consensus Range, Y/Y: -0.1% to 0.1%

The consensus looks for CPI down the same 0.1 percent on year in June as in May.

China PPI for June (Wed 0930 CST; Wed 0130 GMT; Tue 2130 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, Y/Y: -3.2%

Consensus Range, Y/Y: -3.2% to -3.0%

PPI expected down a slightly more moderate 3.2 percent on year in June after declining 3.3 percent in May as deflation continues at wholesale level.

New Zealand RBNZ Announcement (Wed 1400 NZST; Wed 0200 GMT; Tue 2200 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, Change: 0 bp

Consensus Range, Change: -25 bp to 0 bp

Consensus Forecast, Level: 3.25%

Consensus Range, Level: 3.00% to 3.25%

Most forecasters expect the RBNZ to hold rates steady at 3.25 percent this time with a 25 bp cut coming in September.

United States Wholesale Inventories (Preliminary) for May (Wed 1000 EDT; Wed 1400 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, M/M: -0.3%

Consensus Range, M/M: -0.3% to 0.0%

The consensus sees no revision from the decline of 0.3 percent for May reported in the May flash.

Thursday

South Korea Bank of Korea Announcement (Thu 1000 KST; Thu 0100 GMT; Wed 2100 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, Change: 0 bp

Consensus Range, Change: -25 bp to 0 bp

Consensus Forecast, Level: 3.25%

Consensus Range, Level: 3.00% to 3.25%

The consensus sees the BOK keeping rates on hold.

Italy Industrial Production for May (Thu 1000 CEST; Thu 0800 GMT; Thu 0400 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, M/M: 0.1%

Consensus Range, M/M: -0.1% to 0.2%

Consensus Forecast, Y/Y: 0.3%

Consensus Range, Y/Y: 0.3% to 0.9%

Forecasters see industrial production up 0.1 percent on the month in May after rising 1.0 percent in April. The consensus see output up 0.3 percent on year.

United States Jobless Claims for Week 7/10 (Thu 0830 EDT; Thu 1230 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, Initial Claims - Level: 238 K

Consensus Range, Initial Claims - Level: 225 K to 260 K

Claims are expected to bounce back to 238K after an unexpected decline to 233K in the previous week.

Friday

Germany CPI for June (Fri 0800 CEST; Fri 0600 GMT; Fri 0200 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, M/M: 0.0%

Consensus Range, M/M: 0.0% to 0.1%

Consensus Forecast, Y/Y: 2.0%

Consensus Range, Y/Y: 2.0% to 2.0%

Consensus Forecast, HICP - M/M: 0.1%

Consensus Range, HICP - M/M: 0.1% to 0.1%

Consensus Forecast, HICP - Y/Y: 2.0%

Consensus Range, HICP - Y/Y: 2.0% to 2.0%

The consensus sees no revision in final CPI after the flash found no change on the month and an increase of 2.0 percent on year for June.

United Kingdom Monthly GDP for May (Fri 0700 BST; Fri 0600 GMT; Fri 0200 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, M/M: 0.1%

Consensus Range, M/M: 0.0% to 0.1%

Consensus Forecast, Q/Q: 0.4%

Consensus Range, Q/Q: 0.4% to 0.4%

GDP expected up a modest 0.1 percent in May from April and up 0.4 percent on the quarter.

France CPI for June (Fri 0845 CEST; Fri 0645 GMT; Fri 0245 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, M/M: 0.3%

Consensus Range, M/M: 0.3% to 0.4%

Consensus Forecast, Y/Y: 0.9%

Consensus Range, Y/Y: 0.8% to 0.9%

Consensus Forecast, HICP - M/M: 0.4%

Consensus Range, HICP - M/M: 0.4% to 0.4%

Consensus Forecast, HICP - Y/Y: 0.8%

Consensus Range, HICP - Y/Y: 0.8% to 0.8%

No revision expected in the final from the flash at up 0.3 percent on month and up 0.9 percent on year.

Canada Labour Force Survey for June (Fri 0830 EDT; Fri 1230 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, Employment - M/M: 8 K

Consensus Range, Employment - M/M: -3 K to 10 K

Consensus Forecast, Unemployment Rate: 7.1%

Consensus Range, Unemployment Rate: 7.0% to 7.1%

Employment expected up a modest 8K with the jobless rate up to 7.1 percent in June from 7.0 percent in May. Canada's job market continues to struggle under the weight of tariffs.

United States Treasury Statement for June (Fri 1400 EDT; Fri 1800 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, Balance: -$50.0 B

Consensus Range, Balance: -$350 B to -$11.0 B

The budget is expected in deficit by $50.0 billion in June versus $70.9 billion in June 2024.